Eugene Leng, a PhD in economics and finance who was formerly at the Harriman Institute and now in Kiev, has an important Facebook post about the downing of the Malaysian airliner.

 

The reason I took the time to translate it is because I realized nobody is thinking in the terms he is — at least from what I’ve seen — of a joint Buk unit with the trackers and commanders in Russia and the shooters in Ukraine.

 

He sums up his thesis with a tweet from blogger Alexander Bunin, who has supported the theory that Russia and the Russian-backed separatists are innocent of the shoot-down of MH17, and the Ukrainian military is to blame, but who has a point:

 

The consensus building now in the West is that the Russian-backed separatists shot down the Malaysian airline MH17 by mistake, intending to hit a Ukrainian cargo plane, and that the Kremlin has nothing to do with the incident.

But this post by Kiev-based scholar Eugene Leng lines up some alternative thinking on this score which explains how Russians in Russia would have to be involved in any deployment of the Buk by Russian-backed separatists in Ukraine. In the absence of any official or independent military analysis in Russia, or even the West, on how the Buk could have in fact been deployed by the separatists – Putin denies involvement and merely calls for an “international investigation” – this scenario has gotten attention and his post has 1,565 likes and 2,393 shares

Leng explains that he has several higher degrees and has contrasted Soviet training in scholarship, whereby an event is explained by indirect factors through analysis of large masses of data and logic, but the Western approach is to give a footnote for every single thesis; he sees a difference in approach so he has put “Western” or “Soviet” next to each concept.

I see his distinction not merely about mentalities but about training — what Soviets/Russians know about how army units work, and how they organize things.

My translation:

On the tragedy of the Malaysian plane and the murder of civilians: an attempt at reconstruction.

What happened in the sky above Donetsk (attempt at analysis).

1. In connection with large losses by the terrorists caused by a superiority in Ukraine’s air forces, Russia made the decision to increase its anti-aircraft defense of the enclave and began to shoot down Ukrainian planes (Western).

2. To fulfill this task, Russia sent to Ukraine the Buk anti-aircraft system (Western).

3.One Buk division consists of several technological items – as a rule, six. Among these are three units with the actual destroyer missiles (we have seen such a self-propelled vehicle in news from the DPR) and also a mobile command center, radar and technician (re-charging and technical maintenance).

The work of such an anti-aircraft battery must be provided, at a minimum, by 15-20 highly-qualified specialists, and in fact 5-6 of them with higher specialized (including military) education. The calculations must be learned, coordinated, they must go through training. In fact, one of the most important trainings in anti-aircraft defense is the interaction between the calculations and the operations of the entire activated technology.

Non-specialists could not maintain such a system (Western).

3.1. All conversations about how there are such specialists among the separatists are delirious. The Russian Army worked within the framework of the decision under point 1 (Soviet).

3.2 There are a lot of riff-raff among the separatists, but the Buk batteries are filled with precious gems. (Western)

3.3 Even Putin found it hard to make up his mind to allow out of control the Buk anti-aircraft system which can shoot down airliners at an altitude considered safe at 10 kilometers. It is hard to believe that the Kremlin could give an order to transfer such systems from the Russian army into the hands of the Donetsk Lumpen, Cossacks and other riff-raff (Soviet).

4. In order to work against the aviation forces of the ATO [anti-terror operation], the mobile launcher, which went on to Ukrainian territory, could not be used alone. An observation and targeting designation station (as a rule, the SOTs9C18) would have to be activated and a mobile command point (as a rule, 9C470). The entire of these technical items on to the territory of Ukraine were not discovered (Western).

5. Since the Buk has a limited kill range, and was logical to move the launch systems closer to the enemy, and to leave the radar and the command center in Russia (Soviet).

6. After the shoot-down of the airliner, the launch system was immediately evacuated to Russia, in fact hastily, on its own accord (Western).

7. [Col. Igor] Girkin (AKA Strelkov) immediately took the blame on himself. This means that he immediately received an order from panicked Russian military who realized what they had done. Moreover, this happened immediately after the accident. In such a short time, Girkin could have received information only from Russia; the terrorists do not have an electronic picture, i.e. modern means of tracking (Soviet).

On the basis of the above, Eugen Leng has made the following reconstruction of events:

One of the anti-aircraft divisions of the Russian army was given the task to hinder the action of the ATO aviation. For this, special mobile launch systems (three units) were sent to the areas of combat. Meanwhile, the mobile system for target designation and the mobile command center (see their names above) were moved towards the borders of Ukraine, but remained on the territory  of Russia; there was no practical sense in bringing them into a combat zone.

The Malaysian airliner in fact was thus shot down by the joint operations of these units making up a Buk complex. The detection station illuminated the plane, the command center gave the order – this was from the territory of Russia. The self-propelled launch system from the terrorists’ territory ensured the start of the intercept missiles. After the tragic mistake was discovered, the Russian command tried to “move the arrow” toward Girkin. Meanwhile, the launch system itself was immediately evacuated to Russia.

Thus, we are dealing not with some terrorists, but with the coordinated actions of one of the Russian Army’s anti-aircraft defense divisions. It is Russia that has the full responsibility for the murder of almost 300 civilians from various corners of the planet. The tracking of the plane and the command for the launch of the missile was made from the territory of Russia.

The radio-electronic and visual surveillance of NATO and the USA which are now closely monitoring the region of instability could not have helped to notice:

o the radio-electronic track of the targeting radar from the territory of Russia;

o conversations of the mobile command center from the territory of Russia with the self-propelled launch system on the territory of Ukraine;

o not to mention the rocket itself.

I am sure that very soon we will receive a full confirmation of my reconstruction of events. I think that now a serious political decision is being made in the West as to speak the truth to their voters.